The Map Was Short
A Nature study estimates 26.81 percent of land was already in some conservation area in 2022, against an official 18.5 percent. The extra includes possible sites that are not yet recognised.
The official map says about 18.5 percent of the world's land is in a protected area. Helen O'Neill and her colleagues went looking for the land that never made it onto that map. Their estimate, in Nature on 14 October 2026, is 26.81 percent. She does not think that means the job is nearly done.
The paper sampled 25 countries and territories, about a tenth of the terrestrial realm, and extrapolated. The split they print, for 2022: 15.79 percent in protected areas the world already recognises, 3.64 percent in protected areas a country recognises and the global database does not, and 7.38 percent in places that might qualify as other effective conservation measures. Possible, not listed. Listing needs an assessment, the consent of the people who govern the land, and a government willing to send the form.
O'Neill, a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Zoology in London, said that with four years left the terrestrial 30 percent target still looks out of reach, and that more land is already in some kind of conservation area than the official tally shows. Both clauses are the finding. The paper's own warning is the one that stops a celebration: the extra land does not fill the gaps in what is represented. Grassland and shrubland are still thin. Meeting the acreage line, by itself, does little for the species the acreage was supposed to hold.
A different assessment, from Campaign for Nature on 23 September, put designated land and inland water near 20 percent and the ocean at 10 percent. That is another method and another month. It is not a number to add to 26.81, and 26.81 is not an ocean figure. COP17 opens in Yerevan on 19 October. The paper is what we have. The summit has not produced a result.
Key Facts
- Nature, 14 October 2026. Helen M. K. O'Neill and colleagues. DOI 10.1038/s41586-026-11157-4.
- Estimate for 2022: 26.81 percent of land in some conservation area, against an official figure of about 18.5 percent.
- Split: 15.79 percent globally recognised, 3.64 percent nationally recognised, 7.38 percent possible other measures.
- The extra land does not close gaps in grassland and shrubland. The 7.38 percent is not yet recognised.
- This is not an ocean figure.
Why This Matters
Thirty by thirty has been discussed as if the missing land were a construction project. Some of it may be a filing project. That is good news only if the filing is honest, and only if grassland that never got a pin is not dropped because the percentage looks finished.
What We Don't Know Yet
How much of the 7.38 percent will actually be recognised. Whether a sample of 25 countries travels. What COP17 does with the paper. The ocean, which this result does not speak to.